CIAO DATE: 06/2013
May 2013
As the Global Political Agreement (GPA) staggers to an end, continued violations of the agreement, reform deficits, limited institutional credibility and the rejection of a UN election needs assessment mission unde rscore the continued absence of condi- tions for peaceful and credible elections, despite the new constitution adopted in March 2013. President Robert Mugabe has been forced to step back from a June vote, but his party still pushes for an expedited process with little time to implement out- standing reforms and new constitutional provisions. The pervasive fear of violence and actual intimidation cont radicts rhetorical commitments to peace. A reasonably free vote is still possible, but so too are defe rred or disputed polls, or even a military intervention. The international community seems ready to back the Southern African Development Community (SADC), which must work with GPA partners to define and enforce “red lines” for a credible vote.
Resource link: Zimbabwe: Election Scenarios [PDF]