Columbia International Affairs Online: Working Papers

CIAO DATE: 05/2013

Timor-Leste: Stability at What Cost?

May 2013

International Crisis Group

Abstract

UN peacekeepers withdrew from Timor-Leste in December 2012, ending a thirteen- year presence after two successful elections underscored the country’s continued stability. Pragmatic decisions by local leaders after the 2006 crisis to use swelling petroleum industry revenues to buy peace have paid dividends. But that strategy rests on three anchors: the authority of the current prime minister; the deferral of institutional reforms in the security sector; and the flow of oil and gas revenues from the Timor Sea. The dependence on the petroleum industry is unsustainable, and the need to develop alternative anchors maybe more urgent than it appears.