CIAO DATE: 12/2010
November 2010
Madagascar is on edge as this report goes to press. On the previous day, 17 November 2010, a group of military officers announced a coup, stating they had set up a “military council for the welfare of the people”. The authorities claim they have the situation under control and that the plotters aimed only to disturb the constitutional referendum taking place that same day. The regime also expresses confidence that the “yes” vote on its proposed new constitution will win handily, though there are already assertions of irregularities. Behind the scenes, some insiders express greater concern about the situation. What can be said with certainty is only that these developments demonstrate the fragility of the long-running Malagasy crisis and the urgent need, as described below, to adopt a new approach to end it. Madagascar is sinking further into a major political crisis. International and national mediation attempts failed again in 2010, while the population becomes poorer and the state’s structures crumble. The High Authority of the Transition (HAT) has initiated a unilateral process to escape the crisis that is unrecognised by the opposition and the international community – both of which still contest the regime’s legitimacy. Actors who might have helped unlock the stalemate have been unable or unwilling to do so, and some have deliberately dragged out the situation to their advantage. It is time to stop mediation attempts and concentrate on supporting credible elections on the basis of strict conditions.
Resource link: Madagascar : la crise à un tournant critique ? [PDF] - 1.6M