CIAO DATE: 08/2010
May 2009
The unfortunate reality is that trust is at an exceedingly low level between the elites and publics of both nations. Building that trust requires a leap of faith that they can work together on the most difficult issues. The determination to drive such trust-building on a vexing issue was behind the decision of senior Americans and Russians brought together by the EastWest Institute in 2007 to explore if collaboration was possible on the issue of Iran’s ballistic missile and nuclear program. Following a tough yet civil private debate in Moscow, the participants — including on the American side General (ret.) James L. Jones, Ambassador Henry Crumpton, and General (ret.) Lance Lord, and a senior Russian delegation led by Presidential Representative Ambassador Anatoly Safonov — agreed that EWI should convene leading scientists from both states to take up the Iran issue and make it the subject of the fi rst JTA — Joint Threat Assessment. It would be an attempt to see if the top scientists and experts of the two states could agree on the nature of the threat posed by Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile program. Our debate in Moscow demonstrated that there was no easy agreement on Iran’s intentions. A great cloud of ‘smoke’ hung over the policy communities of both nations — a mixing of emotions and unsubstantiated reports with facts and policies. There was no dialogue. Instead the issue generated independent monologues fraught with suspicion and distrust. The decision to move forward with a JTA was a risky one. There was no assurance that it could be done.
Resource link: Groundbreaking U.S.-Russia Joint Threat Assessment on Iran [PDF] - 384K