Columbia International Affairs Online: Working Papers

CIAO DATE: 01/2012

Policy Considerations in Combating Terrorism: Decision‐Making Under Conditions of Risk and Uncertainty

Michele L. Malvesti

January 2012

The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point

Abstract

In May 2011, in what is arguably the United States’ most strategically significant counterterrorism (CT) mission to date, a U.S. Special Operations Forces (SOF) team crossed over 100 miles into Pakistan—a putative CT partner—without informing the host government, infiltrated a residential compound that stood in proximity to a military academy, and killed Usama bin Ladin, the leader of al‐Qa’ida and the individual ultimately responsible for the deadliest terrorist attacks on U.S. soil. In deciding to approve the raid, President Barack Obama had the potential to produce important strategic and operational gains in combating terrorism. A successful raid would help to: Erode the myth of invincibility surrounding the 9/11 mastermind who had eluded capture for nearly a decade; Deprive the most operationally active anti‐U.S. terrorist group of its leader and ideological founder; Affirm the American people’s confidence in their government’s ability to combat terrorism; and Demonstrate to the rest of the world that the United States follows through on its commitments—that when America says it will bring a terrorist to justice, it can and will do what it says it is going to do.