CIAO DATE: 01/2015
November 2014
Center for Strategic and International Studies
In November 2007, a report by the U.S. National Intelligence Estimate “Iran: Nuclear Intentions and Capabilities” basically concluded with the following statement: “We judge with high confidence that in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program; we also assess with moderate to high confidence that Tehran at a minimum is keeping open the option to develop nuclear weapons.” In November 11, 2011, the IAEA published a report claiming "credible" information that Iran had carried out activities "relevant to the development of a nuclear explosive device", the report also included intelligence indicating Iran had a nuclear weapons research program in 2003 but that senior Iranian leaders stopped it when it was discovered and came under increased international pressure. The report identified 12 specific areas, pertaining to Nuclear Explosive Indicators: • Program management structure • Procurement activities • Nuclear material acquisition • Nuclear components for an explosive device • Detonator development • Initiation of high explosives and associated experiments • Hydrodynamic experiments • Modelling and calculations • Neutron initiator • Conducting a test • Integration into a missile delivery vehicle • Fuzing,arming and firing system. The IAEA report concluded: “As Iran is not providing the necessary cooperation, including by not implementing its Additional Protocol, the Agency is unable to provide credible assurance about the absence of undeclared nuclear material and activities in Iran, and therefore to conclude that all nuclear material in Iran is in peaceful activities.”
Resource link: Iran's Nuclear Missile Delivery Capability [PDF] - 8.6M