Columbia International Affairs Online: Working Papers

CIAO DATE: 10/2013

Violence in Iraq: The Growing Risk of Serious Civil Conflict

Anthony H. Cordesman

September 2013

Center for Strategic and International Studies

Abstract

The rising level of violence in Iraq is difficult to measure and interpret, but it presents a serious risk that Iraq could return to the level of civil conflict it experience during the mid-2000s. The revised and updated version of a recent analysis by the Burke Chair at CSIS examines the patterns and trends in Iraqi violence since the departure of US forces at the end of 2011. It examines the statistics on violence and their limits. It also examines the relative role of the Iraqi central government as a cause of such violence relative to the role and nature of violent non –state actors and extremist groups.