CIAO DATE: 02/2013
October 2012
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Nearly one year after the withdrawal of US forces, Iraq continues to grapple with violence stemming from deep ethnic and sectarian tensions, growing political hostility, ineffective governance, and corruption among its security forces. The instability caused by these conditions detracts from the US mission, increases Iran’s ability to influence events across the border, impedes progress in Iraq, and threatens to descend the country back into widespread civil strife. Iraq still has the opportunity to establish a new, unified national identity and improve internal security, or persistent tensions could deteriorate into civil strife, political crisis, and economic instability. The reality, however, is that Iraqi violence remains high and seems to be increasing. The internal structural causes of violence remain a strong as ever: Iraq lacks unified and effective leadership, sectarian and ethnic divisions remain a critical problem. The security forces are not becoming more effective, are corrupt and divided, and increasingly are controlled by a narrow cadre in the Prime Minister’s office. US-Iranian strategic competition over the future of Iraq is a further source of division and violence, and continues to undermine and challenge US interests throughout the region. New sources of instability like the upheavals in Syria are also adding to Iraq’s problems. The end result is that Iraq at “peace” remains nearly as violent as Afghanistan at “war.”
Resource link: Patterns of Violence in Iraq [PDF] - 3.7M