Columbia International Affairs Online: Working Papers

CIAO DATE: 02/2013

U.S. and Iranian Strategic Competition: Sanctions, Energy, Arms Control, and Regime Change

Anthony H. Cordesman, Bryan Gold, Bradley Bosserman, Sam Khazai

January 2013

Center for Strategic and International Studies

Abstract

As the crisis over Iran’s nuclear program continues without resolution, the US and EU have implemented new rounds of increasingly expansive and rigorous sanctions. Iran’s economy is reportedly suffering from high inflation, a devalued currency, unemployment, and high food costs. Sanctions have also begun to whittle away at Iran’s ability to sell its oil and repatriate earnings from the sales it has been able to complete. The Burke Chair in Strategy at CSIS has issued an updated report that puts this competition over sanctions in the broader perspective of its potential impact on global energy exports, arms control, and regional security concerns. This report is entitled, “US and Iranian Strategic Competition: Sanctions, Energy, Arms Control, and Regime Change.” It is available on the CSIS website at: https://csis.org/files/publication/130122_IranVSanctions_Final_AHC_1_22_13.pdf The report provides an in-depth analysis of US and Iranian competition focusing on four interrelated areas - sanctions, energy, arms control, and regime change. It shows this competition has been steadily building since the fall of 2011, when the IAEA issued a new report on the possible military applications of Iran’s nuclear program. Iran has continued to issue threats to “close the Gulf,” and has stalled negotiations, spurring a renewed round of sanctions that have had an increasingly significant impact on Iran’s economy throughout 2012 and continuing into 2013.