CIAO DATE: 11/2012
August 2012
Center for Strategic and International Studies
This report on the U.S.-Japan alliance comes at a time of drift in the relationship. As leaders in both the United States and Japan face a myriad of other challenges, the health and welfare of one of the world's most important alliances is endangered. Although the arduous efforts of Assistant Secretary of State Kurt Campbell and his colleagues in both governments have largely kept the alliance stable, today's challenges and opportunities in the region and beyond demand more. Together, we face the re-rise of China and its attendant uncertainties, North Korea with its nuclear capabilities and hostile intentions, and the promise of Asia's dynamism. Elsewhere, there are the many challenges of a globalized world and an increasingly complex security environment. A stronger and more equal alliance is required to adequately address these and other great issues of the day. For such an alliance to exist, the United States and Japan will need to come to it from the perspective, and as the embodiment, of tier-one nations. In our view, tier-one nations have significant economic weight, capable military forces, global vision, and demonstrated leadership on international concerns. Although there are areas in which the United States can better support the alliance, we have no doubt of the United States' continuing tier-one status. For Japan, however, there is a decision to be made. Does Japan desire to continue to be a tier-one nation, or is she content to drift into tier-two status? If tier-two status is good enough for the Japanese people and their government, this report will not be of interest. Our assessment of, and recommendations for, the alliance depend on Japan being a full partner on the world stage where she has much to contribute. In posing this question, we are cognizant of the problems confounding Japan's influence and role in the world today. Japan has a dramatically aging population and declining birth rate. Her debt-to-GDP ratio is over 200 percent. The Japanese people have been served by six different prime ministers in six years. And, there is a growing sense of pessimism and inward focus among many young Japanese. But, Japan is not destined to see her importance wane. Japan is fully capable of remaining a tier-one nation. It is only a question of her disposition.
Resource link: The U.S.-Japan Alliance: Anchoring Stability in Asia [PDF] - 1.9M