Columbia International Affairs Online: Working Papers

CIAO DATE: 08/2012

Afghanistan from 2012-2014: Is A Successful Transition Possible?

Anthony H. Cordesman

June 2012

Center for Strategic and International Studies

Abstract

The Burke Chair has developed a new analysis reviewing the prospects for a successful form of Transition in Afghanistan. The paper is entitled Afghanistan From 2012-2014: Is A Successful Transition Possible? It is available on the CSIS web site at http://csis.org/files/publication/120619_Afghan_Transition.pdf. The paper suggests that the key issue in evaluating the prospects for a successful Transition in Afghanistan is not whether a successful transition is possible, but rather whether some form of meaningful transition is probable – two very different concepts. Anthony H. Cordesman argues that a modest form of strategic success is still possible, but that it is too soon to know whether it is probable. Moreover, there are many areas where the current level of planning, analysis, and action combine to sharply reduce the chances for success.