CIAO DATE: 08/2012
July 2012
Center for Strategic and International Studies
In the next two and a half years the US and its allies plan to hand over security and other responsibilities to the Afghan government in a process labeled “Transition”. One of the major challenges facing the US and its allies during this time is helping Afghanistan prepare for significant cuts in military and development spending, which have long driven the growth of Afghanistan’s fragile economy. These cuts, along with the country’s fractious politics and persistent insecurity, threaten to derail progress made in recent years. Getting the economics of transition right is critical if Afghanistan is to have a chance of creating a reasonable level of post-2014 security and stability. The Burke chair has developed an analysis of the key economic challenges to transition. This paper is entitled Afghanistan: The Failing Economics of Transition, and is available on the CSIS web site at http://csis.org/files/publication/120720_Afghan_Failing_Econ_Trans.pdf. The paper shows that a successful transition depends as much on economics as on politics, governance, and security. It also warns that planners and policymakers must approach economics with a level of integrity that has been sadly lacking to date. Transition planners and managers need to be honest when the data and sources are in conflict, biased, or based on poor reporting. Too often, data is presented as credible when in fact the uncertainties render it unacceptable for use in planning.
Resource link: Afghanistan: The Failing Economics of Transition [PDF] - 3.8M