CIAO DATE: 10/2011
September 2011
Center for Strategic and International Studies
US-Iranian strategic competition is not primarily focused in South or Central Asia, although they are regions of interest for both Washington and Tehran. The segmented nature of the region also means that neither country has a holistic strategy for the region, and instead pursue an independent foreign policy to account for their specific interests within each country. The region offers extraordinary complex challenges for both the US and Iran, with many ethnic divisions, historical tensions, and a shared pattern of economic underdevelopment with the potential for large-scale unrest. The expected withdrawal of US forces in 2014 will have a major impact on regional policies. In the post-US vacuum, it is expected that Iran will attempt to expand its influence, while the US deliberates on what extent of material commitment is appropriate for its post-Afghan regional interests. The US has many hard decisions to make, which will be driven by various issues including the war in Afghanistan, the growing instability in Pakistan, and whether the US should actively pursue strategic interest in Central Asia in the face of Russian and Chinese pressures and advantages.
Resource link: Competition in Afghanistan, Central Asia, and Pakistan [PDF] - 1.2M