CIAO DATE: 07/2010
April 2010
Center for Strategic and International Studies
The Gulf military balance is dominated by five major factors: The Southern Gulf states, Iran, Iraq, outside powers like the US, and non-state actors like the various elements of Al Qa‟ida, the Mahdi militia, and various tribal forces. At present, the Southern Gulf states have large military resources but limited real-world effectivenerss and have made limited progress towards collective and integrated defense. Iraq‟s forces remain a work in progress that are stll focused on counterinsurgencyg, and will not have effective ability to operate independently in large-scale conventional warfare for at least three to five years. Iran has substantial assets for irregular and asymmetric warfare, and may emerge as a nuclear power during the next three to five years. However, its conventional forces continue to age, lack effective unity and readiness, and are declining in overall capability. Non-state actors play an increasing role in shaping the security situation, but still have very limited capability beyond a limited number of asymmetric or “terrorist” attacks.”. It is the US that now dominates the balance of Gulf military forces, along with its British ally. US land capabilities are, however, heavily committed to Iraq and Afghanistan, and the US would face far more serious porblems in dealing with a well-planned campaign for asymmetric or irregular warfare than it would in fighting a conventional conflict..
Resource link: The Gulf Military Balance in 2010 [PDF] - 708K