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CIAO DATE: 04/03
An Attack on Iraq: The Military, Political, and Economic Consequences: Scenario Briefing
Anthony H. Cordesman, Arleigh A. Burke Chair
for Strategy Center for Strategic and International Studies
The Center for Strategic and International Studies
March 2003
Abstract
There are major uncertainties about the military outcomes and political ramifications of an attack on Iraq.
Really three sequential sets of scenarios:
No one can now predict the nature of the events in each case, the timing of such events, or the seriousness of their impacts on the market.
Nominal economic analysis is certainly possible and useful. Prophecy is impossible.
May be more important to prepare for the most important variables than for scenarios and the most probable events.
We will know what will happen when it happens.