CIAO DATE: 04/03

An Attack on Iraq: The Military, Political, and Economic Consequences: Scenario Briefing

Anthony H. Cordesman, Arleigh A. Burke Chair
for Strategy Center for Strategic and International Studies

The Center for Strategic and International Studies

March 2003

Abstract

There are major uncertainties about the military outcomes and political ramifications of an attack on Iraq.

Really three sequential sets of scenarios:

• The prelude to war and the different ways in which war can occur.
• The actual process of conflict.
• The post-conflict occupation of Iraq and the way in which an independent Iraqi regime emerges.

No one can now predict the nature of the events in each case, the timing of such events, or the seriousness of their impacts on the market.

• Events unfolding by day.

Nominal economic analysis is certainly possible and useful. Prophecy is impossible.

May be more important to prepare for the most important variables than for scenarios and the most probable events.

We will know what will happen when it happens.

Full text (PDF, 28 pages, 88 kbs)