Columbia International Affairs Online: Working Papers

CIAO DATE: 10/2013

Expert Group Meeting on the Impact of Climate Change on ASEAN Food Security

June 2013

Centre for Non-Traditional Security (NTS) Studies

Abstract

Climate change is one of the most pressing issues affecting ASEAN food security. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projects that temperatures will rise between 1.5 to 3 degrees Celsius by 2100 given foreseeable levels of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Higher temperatures have significant ramifications for food production, through: (1) continuous impacts – such as changes in yield due to temperature increase, shifting season lengths, and increased salinity in coastal areas; (2) discontinuous impacts – such as increases in harvest failure due to extreme weather- and climate-related events, pests, and disease outbreaks; and (3) permanent impacts – such as the loss of land due to inundation as a result of sea-level rise. Existing studies highlight several ways in which such impacts might affect Southeast Asia. As a result of higher temperatures, the region will likely experience more extreme and intense heat and rainfall events. It is also projected that sea level will rise at accelerating rates compared to past decades, resulting in increasing inundation of agricultural land. Impacts of climate change such as ocean acidification and warming water temperatures are already affecting fish catches in coral and pelagic areas and threatening the livelihood of fishing communities. These impacts are set to become more pronounced.