CIAO DATE: 06/2012
December 2008
James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies
With the support of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Aff airs, the Monterey Nonproliferation Strategy Group (MNSG) has focused its work over the past two years on specifi c issues that have a direct bearing on the strength and vitality of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). To date, the strategy group’s agenda has included ways and means to eliminate the threat of fi ssile material; renewed commitments and new approaches to verifi cation of and compliance with the nuclear nonproliferation regime; practical and achievable nuclear arms reduction and disarmament; the establishment of a nuclear-weapon-free zone in the Middle East; and nuclear challenges and policy options for the next U.S. administration. Th e objective of its most recent meeting, held August 20–22, 2008 in Monterey, California, was to consider nuclear challenges facing the next U.S. administration, and to identify possible responses to these challenges. Participants at the meeting included many notable fi gures, some of whom have served as senior offi cials in past U.S. administrations. MNSG participants included Ambassador Linton Brooks (former U.S. undersecretary of energy for nuclear security), Madame Th érèse Delpech (director of strategic aff airs, French Atomic Energy Commission), Dr. Lewis Dunn (senior vice president, Science Applications International Corporation), Mr. Robert Einhorn (Center for Strategic and International Studies), Ambassador Rolf Ekéus (chairman of the board, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute), Ambassador Nabil Fahmy (former Egyptian ambassador to the United States), Ms. Rose Gottemoeller (former director, Carnegie Moscow Center), Dr. Sverre Lodgaard (Norwegian Institute of International Aff airs), Professor Harald Müller (director, Peace Research Institute Frankfurt), Dr. Scott Sagan (Center for International Security and Cooperation, Stanford University) and Dr. Chris Wing (Center on International Cooperation, New York University). Th e group considered a number of critical proliferation concerns for the United States, such as Iran, North Korea, and Syria. It also examined how the United States should deal with NPT outlier states; types of early warning indicators and disincentives to prevent further defections; as well as means to counter the threat of nuclear terrorism and non-state actors. Given the importance of cooperation among the Permanent Five members of the UN Security Council (P-5) and the leading role of the United States to this end, the group considered how P-5 consensus on nonproliferation and disarmament could be fostered, if at all. In this context the group also considered the strategic relationships between the United States, Russia, and China. In light of the increased emphasis on prospects for nuclear disarmament, the group examined what short- and mediumterm progressive and systemic steps could be taken toward this goal. Prospects for changing U.S. and Russian strategic doctrines were also considered, while the potential for strengthening U.S. institutional mechanisms related to arms control was highlighted. Given the international nuclear renaissance, the group investigated the risks involved as a result of the surge in nuclear power use and how these risks could be minimized. With regard to regional and other security arrangements, a number of “pointers” were identifi ed for a new U.S. administration, in particular on the all-important issue of the Middle East. Th e group concluded its deliberations by examining challenges and opportunities to strengthen the NPT and in this context considered setting new objectives and ways to implement them as well as means to restore trust and cooperation.
Resource link: Nuclear Challenges and Policy Options for the Next U.S. Administration [PDF] - 1.1M