Columbia International Affairs Online: Working Papers

CIAO DATE: 04/2015

Capital Flows and Spillovers

Şebnem Kelemi-Özcan

March 2015

Centre for International Governance Innovation

Abstract

This paper shows that debt flows have contractionary effects on emerging markets’ output, while equity flows have expansionary effects. Such correlations can be driven by counter-cyclical debt flows and pro-cyclical equity flows, or by debt flows that lead to an appreciation and hurt exports, and by equity flows that improve the productivity of the real economy, broadly defined.