Columbia International Affairs Online: Working Papers

CIAO DATE: 03/2010

Hitting Reboot - Where next for climate after Copenhagen?

Alex Evans, David Steven1

December 2009

Center on International Cooperation

Abstract

Copenhagen got us little further than Bali: a weak political declaration, with 2ºC as the only number. In some respects, the result moves us backwards: the politics are worse, while numbers previously agreed by the Kyoto club are omitted here. The conditions to turn a political declaration into a comprehensive deal appear absent. Rather than hitting the brakes, deal-makers need to steer into the skid by building on unprecedented engagement by heads of state; ratcheting up pressure for US legislation; revitalising strategy among those pushing for a deal; and fundamentally altering the politics of developing country engagement on climate. To do this: they should build and diversify the support base for action on climate change, making tangible to elites and publics what a long-term solution looks like; create the ‘bandwidth’ needed to agree a comprehensive deal, while developing the institutions needed to build confidence that the deal can actually be implemented; and increase levels of trust in the climate policy debate, by showing a new willingness to talk frankly and honestly about how to manage climate risk. With these ends in mind, the paper offers 12 recommendations as follows.