Columbia International Affairs Online: Working Papers

CIAO DATE: 05/2010

The Russian Economic Crisis

Jeffrey Mankoff

April 2010

Council on Foreign Relations

Abstract

Nearly two decades after the fall of the Soviet Union, the character of Russia, its principal successor state, remains unresolved. So, too, does the character of Russia's relationship with the West. Though the intense U.S.-Soviet rivalry of the Cold War is over, Russia has not become the consistent partner that many on the outside hoped would emerge after the Cold War's end. The United States and Europe have taken issue with many elements of Russia's domestic trajectory and regional and international posture, including its democratic practices, energy-related activities in Europe, stance on Iran's nuclear program, and actions in the 2008 Russia-Georgia conflict. At the same time, many Russians are also disappointed with Western policies and actions, including sympathy for Georgia, U.S. plans for missile defense, and, above all, the enlargement of NATO. This has made for a mix of resentment and assertiveness in Moscow. A principal factor enabling this assertiveness in recent years has been Russia's strong economic growth. Since 2008, though, Russia, like many other countries, has experienced a deep economic crisis. The question is how this crisis might affect Russia's domestic politics and foreign policy and, consequently, whether any change is warranted in U.S. policy toward Moscow.