CIAO DATE: 04/2013
February 2013
Despite this optimistic prognostication, the millennial decade was one of profound crisis, with serious consequences for the United States’ economy and society, and for the environmental sustainability of the American dream. This paper starts from the following assumptions: First, though the United States’ economic model has many strengths, its resilience has been weakened. Acute economic, social and environmental challenges will need to be addressed in either the short or long term. Second, the United States’ response to this era of crisis will be an important factor influencing how other countries react, given the size of its economy, its position as a “necessary but not sufficient” actor on most global issues and its potential for innovation. Third, it is necessary to gain an understanding of the drivers of and obstacles to change in American society to draw conclusions about its response to crisis. We identify four trajectories (scenarios) the U.S. could take over the coming decades: The United States could continue to try and muddle through, reacting to the external environment, rather than trying to shape it. It might aggressively focus on going for growth in order to meet the aspirations of its growing population, with only limited regard for environmental consequences. Alternatively, intelligent design would lead the U.S. to place greater value on sustainability at national and global levels, adopting reforms that begin to push its economy onto a new trajectory. Finally, shocks could drive an emergency response, as renewed breakdown in global financial systems, serious conflict or state failure, or a series of extreme weather events dominate the government’s agenda.
Resource link: The United States After the Great Recession: The Challenge of Sustainable Growth [PDF]