CIAO DATE: 07/2010
December 2008
The American relationship with Lebanon has ebbed and flowed over the decades, as policy has tended to be reactive rather than driven by a clear sense of U.S. goals. More recently, the U.S. strongly supported the 2005 Lebanese independence movement against Syrian hegemony, known as the “Cedar Revolution” in the United States and the “Independence Intifada” in Lebanon, and continues to maintain strong ties to the ruling March 14 coalition which was born out of that movement. The Cedar Revolution was a major victory for Lebanese independence but remained only the first step in a long and complex journey. Several militant groups still operate with impunity inside Palestinian camps and remote areas of Lebanon. Hezbollah poses a particular challenge, acting as both a heavily armed state-within-a-state, and as the predominant Shia party within the legitimate Lebanese political system. State institutions remain weak and are often ignored or out-competed by organizations and patronage networks loyal to powerful local or sectarian leaders. With the arrival of the new administration of President Barack Obama, the U.S. is set to reengage throughout the Middle East. Even as the new president’s foreign policy team swings into action, Lebanon is gearing up for a major test of its current pro-Western alignment as it heads to parliamentary elections in June of 2009. The challenge in Lebanon will be to build on the gains made in the past few years while moving to this new regional approach. With respect to consolidating gains for itself and for promoting regional stability, Lebanon offers both unique challenges and opportunities for the United States. Lebanon has an essential but complicated role in any hypothetical Syrian-Israeli peace deal. At the same time, Lebanon represents one of the best opportunities to demonstrate to the region that democracy and free markets can indeed deliver, despite the failures in Iraq and the global financial crisis. Those challenges must be addressed, and opportunities seized, if U.S. goals are to be met in the Middle East. 1. Consolidate Gains. Lebanon’s progress towards full independence and sovereignty over its territory is incomplete and fragile. U.S. support for the Lebanese army and security services is an essential part of preserving and extending that sovereignty, but to be effective itmust be carefully directed and accompanied by political reform and robust diplomatic engagement. U.S. involvement in Arab-Israeli peace talks and support of the “Arab Peace Initiative” will not only help bring a peace deal closer but also ensure that Lebanon is not ceded to Syrian control through any bilateral arrangements, which could destabilize the country. A U.S. move to resolve the lingering border issues with Israel would also promote moderate voices and reduce the appeal and rationale of Hezbollah as an extra-legal armed force. 2.Reposition theU.S.The new administration has an opportunity to reinvent the badly damaged American profile in the Middle East. Lebanon is well positioned to be both a prominent example of, and laboratory for, such a shift. President Obama has already stated clearly that he intends to engage with America’s enemies. The U.S. can make things more difficult for Hezbollah by engaging constructively with those elements of Lebanese society who have so far been skeptical of or hostile to American interests. By supporting broad, politically neutral reforms in Lebanon, the U.S. can strengthen theWestern “brand” and sap the appeal of a militant “rejectionist” posture. By supporting reforms that promote independent Shia voices the U.S. can soften Hezbollah’s power base and make the case that the U.S. is a friend of all the Lebanese, not an enemy. 3. Strengthen State Institutions. The upcoming parliamentary elections will be an important test of the progress made towards rebuilding the Lebanese state since the 2005 Syrian withdrawal. The U.S., Arab states, and other members of the international community who have supported that progress would do well to ensure that those elections are carried out without violence or foreign interference, so that the next Lebanese government has a clear mandate to rule. Demarcating Lebanon’s borders and promoting regular, normalized inter-state relations between Lebanon and Syria are non-partisan reforms that are key to that effort and essential to preserving Lebanon as a sovereign, stable and constructive regional player going forward.
Resource link: Lebanon: The Swing State of a New Levant [PDF] - 448K