Columbia International Affairs Online: Policy Briefs

CIAO DATE: 02/2015

Regional Nuclear Plans in the Aftermath of an Iran Deal

Simon Henderson, Olli Heinonen

November 2014

The Washington Institute for Near East Policy

Abstract

In April 2009, King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia famously told U.S. special envoy Dennis Ross that "if [the Iranians] get nuclear weapons, we will get nuclear weapons." Such comments suggest that leaders in Riyadh and other Gulf capitals will closely study any deal reached with Iran, whether on or after the expiration of current nuclear talks next Monday. The message out of the kingdom, delivered repeatedly and recently in Washington by former intelligence chief Prince Turki al-Faisal, is that whatever Tehran gets, Gulf Arabs will want. U.S. wishes aside, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and perhaps even Jordan could make as plausible a case as Iran for building nuclear power plants. And from their perspective, if Iran is going to be allowed to enrich uranium and retain its nuclear-capable missiles -- as they believe likely given Washington's reported approach to the negotiations thus far -- why shouldn't they be permitted to acquire similar capabilities?