Columbia International Affairs Online: Policy Briefs

CIAO DATE: 03/2010

How to Assess Political Fissures in Iran

David Cvach, Ali Alfoneh, Mehdi Khalaji

February 2010

The Washington Institute for Near East Policy

Abstract

The means for assessing political fissures in Iran are by nature very limited and have become even more so since the June 12, 2009, election. Independent studies and data on the Iranian public, such as opinion polling, are sparse and not useful, and the Iranian press follows very strict red lines in discussing politics. Western diplomats in Iran are also restrained from understanding the political environment due to the oppressively formal nature of relations with Iranian officials, who rarely discuss sensitive issues with their Western counterparts.