Columbia International Affairs Online: Policy Briefs

CIAO DATE: 09/2008

PolicyWatch #1375: Lebanese Crisis Ends: Hizballah Victory or Temporary Truce?

David Schenker

May 2008

The Washington Institute for Near East Policy

Abstract

On May 21, after five days of mediation, Qatari officials announced a compromise solution to the Lebanese crisis between the pro-Western government and Hizballah-led opposition backed by Iran and Syria. According to preliminary reports, the negotiations centered on presidential elections and electoral reform, yet avoided the critical issue of Hizballah's weapons. Although details are still emerging, the broad outline of the agreement suggests that Hizballah has translated, at least temporarily, its May 7 military victory into a political victory. But given the potential outcome of the 2009 parliamentary elections, the Shiite group's victory may be short lived.