CIAO DATE: 04/2012

Climate Change as a Conflict Multiplier

February 2012

United States Institute of Peace

Abstract

Climate change can have major economic and social consequences for all nations. It is possible that some nations will benefit from climate change but most will be impacted negatively. On its current path, inaction can lead to negative economic shocks hampering global food and commodity prices. Hot wars are the conflicts that could emerge in countries near the equator, most of which are developing countries. These conflicts can stem from severe drought, declining agricultural production, torrential rains,  ash  oods, cyclones, hurricanes, monsoons, tsunamis and tropical storms. Cold wars are likely to occur in more temperate and arctic regions where states will face new economic con icts. Specifically, conflicts can arise with economic competition for newly available resources resulting from a change in ocean ecosystems. This includes border conflicts, regulatory challenges and the development of new trade routes. The underlying relationship found between hot and cold wars is the interplay of resource abundance and resource scarcity that is caused by changes in the climate. Generally speaking, with climate change, there is a shift of resource availability from hot to cold states.

Resource link: Climate Change as a Conflict Multiplier [PDF] - 566K