CIAO DATE: 12/2010
November 2010
United States Institute of Peace
* African leaders have recently expressed concern that the possible division of Sudan may lead to a domino effect of other secessions on the continent-but closer analysis questions how likely this may be.
* Africa's borders are largely accepted; it is only a distinct few cases (including Sudan) in which they could be reconsidered.
* While there are many secession movements in Africa, most are weak and few stand a real chance of success, or have the international support they would need to advance their cause. This minimizes the likelihood of a wave of follow-on secessions if Southern Sudan chooses to secede.
Resource link: Secession and Precedent in Sudan and Africa [PDF] - 219K