CIAO DATE: 06/2010
April 2010
United States Institute of Peace
Several destabilizing dynamics persist throughout eastern Central Asia, such as weak governance, poor social and economic conditions, ethnic tensions and religious militancy. While these differ in kind and scope in each country, some conflict drivers are transnational in scope, such as energy insecurity and environmental degradation. Most factors mitigating or managing conflict-risks—such as foreign capital injections, migrant remittances and Soviet-style repression—are unsustainable and could trigger future violence. Given the deep Uzbek suspicion of any foreign, particularly Western, presence in the region, conflict prevention efforts should primarily focus on the Kyrgyz and Tajik side of the Ferghana Valley, a potential hotbed of instability. The U.S. government (USG) should coordinate its engagements in Central Asia with regional powers China and Russia; these efforts should be complemented by policy initiatives that tackle the unique challenges facing each country.
Resource link: Preventing Conflict in the "Stans" [PDF] - 253K