CIAO DATE: 09/2008
May 2008
United States Institute of Peace
The results of Iran's March 14, 2008 parliamentary elections-a 70 percent victory for conservatives within Iran-came as little surprise. The ruling elite disqualified approximately 1,700 reformist candidates before the elections, minimizing the risk of a conservative defeat. However, the results revealed a growing divide between conservatives allied with President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and a "third way" movement led by pragmatic conservatives who, though loyal to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Sayed Ali Khamenei, are critical of Ahmadinejad's economic policies and confrontational rhetoric with the West. The surprising electoral success of these pragmatic conservatives may pose a significant challenge to Ahmadinejad in Iran's 2009 presidential elections.
On April 16, 2008, the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at The Brookings Institution and USIP's Muslim World Initiative convened a meeting of the Iran Working Group to discuss the parliamentary election results, their implications for the Iranian presidential elections and their potential impact on Iran's relationship with the West. The featured speakers were Barbara Slavin, senior fellow at USIP, and Mark Gasiorowski, director of the International Studies Program at the Louisiana State University. This USIPeace Briefing summarizes the discussion.
Resource link: Analyzing Iran's Domestic Political Landscape [PDF] - 57K