CIAO DATE: 09/2008
April 2008
United States Institute of Peace
The botched results from the December 27, 2007 presidential elections in Kenya sparked a wave of violence across the country that left more than 1,000 dead and 600,000 displaced. Incumbent president Mwai Kibaki, representing the ruling Party of National Unity (PNU), was declared the winner of the presidential polls over Raila Odinga, of the opposition Orange Democratic Movement (ODM). Supporters of the ODM, which had won 99 parliamentary seats against PNU's 43 (out of 210 elected seats), charged that the election had been rigged. The chairman of the Electoral Commission of Kenya has since stated that the PNU and the ODM-K (an allied party) forced him to call the election, even with irregularities in the tallying.1
The African Union's Panel of Eminent Africans, which Kofi Annan led, mediated for nearly forty days. After these efforts, Kibaki and Odinga agreed to: end the violence, address the humanitarian situation, and resolve the political crisis through a National Accord and Reconciliation Act (hereafter the National Accord). Complementing the National Accord, the parties agreed to examine long-standing sources of grievances and establish an Independent Review Commission to examine the electoral process; a Truth, Justice, and Reconciliation Commission; a Commission on Inquiry on Post-Election Violence; and the Constitutional Review Commission.
The main objectives of the National Accord are to create the positions of prime minister and two deputy prime ministers and establish a governing coalition comprised of cabinet appointees from both the PNU and ODM. The coalition government can dissolve if the current parliament is dissolved, the parties agree to it in writing, or if one party withdraws from the coalition.2 Even though the National Accord is but one of several significant agreements between Kibaki and Odinga, it is undoubtedly the most important. Should it fail, the full scope of the reconciliation process could not be implemented, and violence could recur. Indeed, on April 8, the announcement of the suspension of the talks over the coalition cabinet's composition resulted in violence in Kibera, a Nairobi slum.
What are the strengths and weaknesses of the National Accord? What factors could increase the likelihood that the power-sharing coalition remains intact? What are the costs of withdrawing from the coalition government? An initial examination of internal and external sources of leverage suggests that the cost of withdrawing from the coalition must be clearer, domestic constituencies must be more actively involved, and the militia must be disarmed.
Resource link: Kenya: Setting the Stage for Durable Peace? [PDF] - 51K