CIAO DATE: 09/2008
April 2008
United States Institute of Peace
Iraq remains a critical problem for the United States. Security has improved to roughly 2005 levels, and tentative political progress has been made, but there is no visible end to the U.S. commitment required to prevent Iraq from spinning out of control and threatening a widening war in the region. The Bush Administration and the Congress face difficult choices: How can the relative success during the period of the surge be prolonged and solidified? Should the drawdown continue? When will the Iraqi security forces be ready to take over? What can be done to accelerate political progress?
In September, Iraq experts convened by the U.S. Institute of Peace identified five paramount interests that U.S. policy in Iraq should aim to serve:
The same group reconvened in recent months to consider policy options for political development in Iraq formulated on the basis of these five interests. Sharp differences emerged, mainly due to different prioritization of the interests listed above. Rather than debating whether to stay or withdraw, those interested in Iraq would do well to focus on which national interests they hold most dear and how the policies they advocate serve those interests. Doing so would not lead to consensus, but it would clarify what is at stake and allow a more reasoned debate.
This paper describes the current policy (as well as possible variants) and presents two alternatives that would reduce the U.S. commitment to Iraq. In deciding among the options, there are important questions that remain to be answered. As General David Petraeus and Ambassador Ryan Crocker are expected to appear before Congress in April, we have appended to this analysis a series of questions that they might be asked so as to clarify U.S. policy and policy options.
Resource link: Iraq After the Surge: Options and Questions [PDF] - 77K