CIAO DATE: 8/00

United States — Bush Presidency

Caspar Fithin

In Perspective©
The Oxford Analytica Weekly Column
August 3, 2000

Oxford Analytica

An analysis of Texas Governor George Bush’s record as a modest tax cutter and education policy activist suggests that these issues would probably shape his policy preferences if he were elected president. A Bush White House would probably settle for smaller tax cuts than those the governor is currently proposing. It would also be likely to focus on achieving a series of moderately conservative education and crime reforms.

Bush’s record in Texas suggests that he may place a high priority on expanding NAFTA. In most other foreign policy areas, the governor would probably defer to his vice-president Dick Cheney and the team of experts he is expected to appoint to key foreign and defence positions.

The arrival of the nominating convention season on July 31 will move the presidential election campaign into a new and more intense phase. As Texas Governor George Bush, the de facto Republican nominee, will enter this period with a modest but consistent poll lead (an advantage that will probably widen as a result of the publicity generated by next week’s Republican convention), a large amount of interest will be taken in his gubernatorial record. In particular, clues will be sought to help predict the direction of his presidency should he be elected in November.

 

Texas politics

Although Texas is now the second-most populous state in the country, it has a highly distinct set of political institutions and a political culture that reflect the era before the massive increase in its population. Texas has not made the sweeping changes to its constitution that other major states have during the past four decades. Four factors in particular make an assessment of the Bush record particularly difficult:

 

1. Weak governor

The governor of Texas has relatively weak institutional powers compared to other state governors in the United States:

• Much executive power is held by independent commissions and boards. Although these are appointed by the governor, once they are in place, they are generally difficult to control.
• Remarkably, the lieutenant-governor (technically the governor’s deputy) has more direct influence over legislative politics than the governor.
• The very limited power that the governor has over framing the draft state constitution is very rare in the United States.

 

2. Part-time legislature

The Texas legislature only meets formally for 140 days every two years. For the entirety of Bush’s governorship the Democrats have held a majority in the state House of Representatives; since 1996, Republicans have held a small majority in the state Senate but are in de facto coalition with conservative Democrats. The short period of time in which laws can be passed, combined with the need for cross-party consensus, severely limits the size of the political agenda that any governor can pursue.

 

3. State economics

Texas has no state income tax (a unique feature for a state of its size) which severely limits state revenues and the potential for government activism. However, revenues from property and sales tax have soared in the 1990s as a result of the booming economy. After a severe downturn in the late 1980s (as a result of falling oil prices, defence cuts and the savings and loans crisis), a sustained expansion founded on high-tech industries created more jobs in Texas in the 1990s than in any other state.

 

4. Political culture

The prevailing political consensus on issues such as crime and welfare is strikingly conservative compared to other large states. Thus while Bush’s record in this area might appear notably more conservative than Republican governors in northern states, by Texan standards he is a centrist.

Bush has been associated with three main areas of policy:

• In every session of the Texas legislature since he became governor, he has sought relatively modest tax cuts. He has been broadly successful in implementing this agenda, although his attempt to achieve major structural reform of the tax system was unsuccessful.
• He has been a relative activist in promoting measures to improve education standards, limit welfare and oblige welfare recipients to acquire employment and training. The governor has also adopted an extremely tough stance on law and order issues.
• Bush has been exceptionally active in promoting the integration of the Texan and the Mexican economies. He opposed the congressional Republican plan to eliminate aid to illegal immigrants, opposed the use of troops to patrol borders and sought concessions on the potentially explosive matter of bilingual education. These relatively moderate stances and his vigorous attempt to court Hispanic voters help to explain the scale of his 1998 gubernatorial re-election success.

 

Bush predilections

From this record, a number of assumptions can be made about the probable ‘instincts’ of a Bush presidency:

• Economy. Bush would probably happily settle for smaller tax cuts than he is proposing now and would not seek the scale of spending cuts proposed by congressional Republicans when Newt Gingrich was at the height of his power as House speaker.
• Domestic policy. In contrast to his father, the governor would probably be an activist in domestic policy but will contain his initiatives to a limited sphere of issues. There is a strong chance that he would push for reforms of a moderately conservative nature in education and crime (although the federal role is limited in these areas) and launch new healthcare and social security initiatives.

Foreign policy. Bush would be unlikely to demonstrate a great interest in international affairs, except perhaps in seeking to expand NAFTA. He would probably appoint a number of acknowledged experts in key foreign and defence policy positions and broadly defer to their judgement. Bush’s lack of interest and inexperience in foreign affairs are a key reason why he selected former secretary of defence Dick Cheney as his vice-presidential nominee.