Columbia International Affairs Online: Policy Briefs

CIAO DATE: 11/2012

Poland: Industry Forecast

August 2012

Oxford Economics

Abstract

GDP is expected to rise by 2.6% in 2012 and expand by 2.7% in 2013. Over the next 10 years to 2021, GDP is predicted to grow on average by 3.2% a year. Manufacturing output growth is forecast to be higher than GDP growth over the next decade. Manufacturing output is expected to increase by 2.1% in 2012 and expand by 5.3% in 2013. Over the next 10 years to 2021, manufacturing output is expected to grow on average by 4.3% a year. As a result, the share of manufacturing output in GDP is projected to rise from 25.4% in 2011 to 27.2% by 2016 and increase to 28.7% by 2021. Over the same period, the share of service sector output in GDP is expected to decline from 58.5% in 2011 to 57.2% in 2016 and fall to 56.2% in 2021.