Columbia International Affairs Online: Policy Briefs

CIAO DATE: 11/2011

Global Outlook: Dangerous Times

October 2011

Oxford Economics

Abstract

The global economic outlook has worsened significantly. The latest data point to a slowdown in economic activity in the spring and summer. Our baseline forecast sees world GDP rising by 2.8% in 2011 and 3.1% in 2012 (at market exchange rates). There are significant risks to global growth coming from three different fronts: i) an escalation of the Eurozone debt crisis, ii) the possibility that the US falls back into recession, and iii) a hard landing in the emerging economies.