Columbia International Affairs Online: Policy Briefs

CIAO DATE: 11/2009

Country Economic Forecasts: Germany

December 2008

Oxford Economics

Abstract

Germany appears to be slipping deeper into recession. The latest industrial figures are alarming: production fell 2.1% in October and orders were down 17.3%. If output remained at current levels to year-end, then Q4 would be down 3.2% on Q3, but the situation is deteriorating. The manufacturing PMI is below 40 and the expectations component of the Ifo is at its lowest level since the first oil crisis in the early 1970s.