CIAO DATE: 07/2014
June 2014
Norwegian Peacebuilding Resource Centre
From the start of the Ukrainian crisis Turkey kept a low profile and adopted a strategy best described as “don’t poke the Russian bear”. Russia is a major Turkish trading partner and Turkey relies heavily on Russian natural gas for its energy needs, while Turkish prime minister Erdogan has also been dealing with serious domestic challenges in the last year. Therefore, due to both external and internal factors, Turkey will avoid confronting Russia directly and will pass the buck to the U.S. and EU. In the short to medium term there are three plausible scenarios under which Turkey will change its current policy. They include the oppression of Crimean Tatars by the Russian authorities; military confrontation in the Black Sea between Russia and NATO; or a more unified, tougher stance against Russia by the West. In the long term Turkey most likely will revert to its traditional role of balancing Russia by strengthening its ties with the West, while reducing its energy dependence on Russia.
Resource link: "Don't poke the Russian bear": Turkish policy in the Ukrainian crisis [PDF] - 142K