CIAO DATE: 01/2013
October 2012
Norwegian Peacebuilding Resource Centre
This brief surveys Afghanistan’s links to four key regional powers: India, Iran, Russia and Saudi Arabia. It finds that regional affairs have changed significantly from the troubled 1980s and 1990s. Whereas Afghanistan’s neighbours previously backed competing Afghan factions and played out their regional rivalries in the Afghan arena, many have now shifted to working with a functioning central Afghan government (Pakistan remains to some extent, however, a worrying exception). Strong regional competition persists among key adversaries such as Saudi Arabia and Iran and between Pakistan and India, but these rivalries are less subversive for Afghanistan than they were previously. The policy implications are that the quest for a grand regional settlement where major inter-state grievances are addressed seems both futile and less urgent. The on-going Istanbul process provides an alternative step-by-step approach that emphasises regional confidence building. Norway should continue its support to this process and, if called upon by the regional powers, use its financial muscle to help ensure that tangible cooperation projects are initiated as part of it.
Resource link: Afghanistan and the regional powers: history not repeating itself? [PDF]