CIAO DATE: 06/2014
March 2014
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
There is little consensus among scholars and practitioners on how to confront or even characterize the contemporary cyber threat. The range of conceivable cyber conflict is poorly understood by strategic thinkers, and it is unclear how conventional security mechanisms, such as deterrence and collective defense, apply to this phenomenon. The cyber revolution's strategic quandaries need urgent resolution. Mastery of the cyber issue requires an ability to break free from familiar conceptions of security and conflict. Insofar as the consequences of a cyberattack do not rise to the level of traditional interstate violence, the notion of cyber "war" is meaningless. Nevertheless, the virtual weapon is expanding the range of possible harm and outcomes between the concepts of war and peace—with important consequences for national and international security. Three main factors underscore the cyber danger: (1) the potency of cyberweapons, (2) complications relating to defense, and (3) problems of strategic instability.
Resource link: The Shape of the Cyber Danger [PDF] - 332K