Columbia International Affairs Online: Policy Briefs

CIAO DATE: 10/2013

States Will Not Give Nuclear Weapons to Terrorists

Keir A. Lieber, Daryl Press

September 2013

Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University

Abstract

Assessing the risk of nuclear attack-by-proxy turns on the question of whether a state could sponsor nuclear terrorism and remain anonymous. A leader could rationalize such an attack—and entrust terrorists with a vitally important mission—only if doing so allowed the sponsor to avoid retaliation. After all, if a leader did not care about retaliation, he or she would likely conduct a nuclear strike directly. Giving nuclear weapons to terrorists makes sense only if there is a high likelihood of remaining anonymous after the attack.