Columbia International Affairs Online: Policy Briefs

CIAO DATE: 07/2013

The U.S. Shale Oil Boom: Potential Impacts and Vulnerabilities of an Unconventional Energy Source

Leonardo Maugeri

June 2013

Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University

Abstract

An analysis of more than 4,000 shale wells along with the activities of one hundred oil companies involved in shale oil exploitation suggests that the United States may become the largest global oil producer in just a few years. The large resource size – and the ability of the industry to develop it through steady improvements in technology and cost – may dwarf earlier forecasts. The largest U.S. shale oil formations seem capable of sustaining increased production, with a total capability of more than 100,000 producing wells versus around 10,000 of actual producing wells today. Improvements in knowledge of geology and drilling technology may prolong the productivity of shale formations well after 2030.