Columbia International Affairs Online: Policy Briefs

CIAO DATE: 11/2011

W[h]ither the Kyoto Protocol? Durban and Beyond

Daniel Bodansky

August 2011

Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University

Abstract

On December 31, 2012, the Kyoto Protocol's first commitment period will expire. Unless states agree to a second commitment period, requiring a further round of emissions cuts, the Protocol will no longer impose any quantitative limits on states' greenhouse gas emissions. Although, as a legal matter, the Protocol will continue in force, it will be a largely empty shell, doing little if anything to curb global warming. Ever since the Kyoto Protocol's entry into force in 2005, the question of what to do after 2012, when Kyoto's first commitment runs out, has been a central focus of the U.N. climate change negotiations. Developing countries such as China and India want the Protocol to continue in its present form, imposing quantitative limits on developed country emissions but not their own. The European Union might be amenable to a new commitment period under the Protocol, but only as part of "a global and comprehensive framework engaging all major economies,"2 including the United States and China. Meanwhile, some Kyoto parties, such as Japan, Canada, and Russia, want to replace the Kyoto Protocol with a comprehensive new agreement with commitments by both developed and developing countries.