Columbia International Affairs Online: Policy Briefs

CIAO DATE: 06/2011

A Bleak Future for the European Project

Sebastian Rosato

May 2011

Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University

Abstract

The European project seems to have run aground of late. Observers want to know how likely it is that the Europeans will recommit themselves to establishing a political and military union, and what the future holds for the single market and single currency. The answer is that the future of the European project looks bleak. There is little chance that the Europeans will take any real steps toward building a political or military union. The future of the existing economic union—the EU—is also unpromising. At best, it will continue to muddle along; at worst, it will continue to fray until it becomes a shadow of its former self.