Columbia International Affairs Online: Policy Briefs

CIAO DATE: 07/2010

Pakistan's Nuclear Posture: Implications for South Asian Stability

Vipin Narang

January 2010

Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University

Abstract

BOTTOM LINES • Pakistan’s first-use asymmetric escalation nuclear posture has created a vicious circle where extremist organizations based in Pakistan, shielded by Pakistan’s aggressive nuclear posture, can target Indian cities with virtual impunity. • Although this posture has seemingly deterred Indian conventional retaliation since 1998, its credibility requirements generate significant risks of theft and unauthorized or accidental nuclear use, particularly during crises with India. • This instability and these risks will amplify to intolerable levels if India moves toward a conventional “Cold Start” posture, which will place the Indian subcontinent on a permanent crisis footing.