Columbia International Affairs Online: Policy Briefs

CIAO DATE: 05/2014

Guinée-Bissau: les élections, et après?

April 2014

International Crisis Group

Abstract

Two years and one day after the coup that prevented the victory of the African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC) in the March-April 2012 presidential polls, and after a series of postponements and crises, Guinea-Bissau will finally hold elections on 13 April 2014. These legislative and presidential elections will take place not because of a strong national consensus but because the country is on the verge of bankruptcy and the international community, less divided than it was at the time of the coup, has applied strong pressure. The vote is only the first stage in the transition and the basic problems that undermine progress in this small West African country remain. The elections will no doubt pose a threat to vested interests and stability. The new government will have to promote consensus and political pluralism, while the international community must carefully monitor developments in this crucial coming period. International pressure was a decisive factor in ensuring the vote goes ahead as currently planned. Political and military leaders had no choice but to hold elections to avoid bankruptcy and escape from continuing international isolation. However, the elections will resolve nothing if international partners do not work closely with Guinea-Bissau in the crucial period after the inauguration of the new president. They must work towards a greater degree of coordination in the few days before, but above all during and after the elections.