CIAO DATE: 07/2012
June 2012
"The P5 +1, Iran and the Perils of Nuclear Brinkmanship", the latest International Crisis Group briefing, examines the diplomatic roller coaster, from the rush of optimism that followed the April session in Istanbul to the pessimism resulting from last month’s Baghdad talks and proposes a pragmatic way forward. Washington and Brussels seem to count on sanctions to force Iran to compromise. Tehran appears to bank on a re-elected President Obama displaying more flexibility and an economically-incapacitated Europe fearing the adverse consequences of tougher sanctions. None of this is likely. If prospects for a deal fade, mutual escalation is more probable – and pressure by Israel for a military strike.
Resource link: The P5 +1, Iran and the Perils of Nuclear Brinkmanship [PDF] - 359K