Columbia International Affairs Online: Policy Briefs

CIAO DATE: 03/2009

Guinea: The Transition Has Only Just Begun

March 2009

International Crisis Group

Abstract

The latest policy briefing from the International Crisis Group says the junta that took control on 23 December 2008 hours after the long-time, authoritarian President Lansana Conté died, is in danger of resorting to repressive measures of its own, as its popular support dives along with the economy. Since there is also a risk of a counter-coup from dissatisfied army elements, a democratic transition at best faces a long and difficult road.

Conté left a legacy of abusive security forces, a collapsed economy and a lack of trust among a divided civil society and quarrelsome political parties. Many people, fearing open civil strife, welcomed the junta as a least-worst option. It has spent more than two months consolidating its grip on power by replacing dozens of administrators with its own supporters.