CIAO DATE: 08/2012
March 2012
Global Political Trends Center
Since September 2011, the Eurasian gas market has been facing shocking bi-‐ monthly announcements: on September 23, British Petroleum (BP) announced the South East Europe Pipeline (SEEP); on December 26, Turkish and Azeri authorities announced their joint agreement for the Trans-‐Anatolian Pipeline (TANAP); and on February 26, the Shah Deniz II Consortium announced it was undertaking exclusive negotiations with the Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP). The shock wave intensified when the Turkish Energy Minister hinted that a new agreement allowing Russia to build its own South Stream pipeline under the Black Sea using Turkish territorial waters was in the works. Now the ultimate question of the Eurasian energy market is: “Which of these projects will be built?” This Policy Brief seeks to answer this question by analyzing Turkey’s standing in Eurasian energy diplomacy in the perspective of energy transit projects competing for building the Southern Energy Corridor of gas transit from the Caspian zone to Europe. First, I present a short review of Turkish strategy in Eurasian energy diplomacy. Secondly, I detail the driving forces behind Turkish energy policy. I then conclude with some remarks about different scenarios of Turkish energy policy in the framework of the Southern Energy Corridor.
Resource link: Turkey's Standing in Gas Pipeline Games [PDF] - 278K