Columbia International Affairs Online: Policy Briefs

CIAO DATE: 10/2014

Reshaping the Security Order in Asia-Pacific

Alain Guidetti

November 2012

The Geneva Centre for Security Policy

Abstract

The shift of the global balance of power from the West to the East, which results from the sustained economic growth of China and Asia and the weakening of Western economies prompted by the 2008 global financial crisis, has deep implications over the security environment in Asia-Pacific China’s increasing economic might and strategic ambitions put to test the US security order in the region, along with numerous security challenges – as territorial disputes in the South China Sea, the future of Taiwan, the Korean nuclear issue and regional structural weaknesses related to historic legacy and rivalries The US response to the challenge posed by Asia’s and mainly China’s rise, focused on the "rebalancing" strategy towards Asia, is increasing the strategic competition between the US and China for preeminence over the Asia-Pacific Several scenarios can be envisaged about the future Asian order, from an unlikely status quo, to a balance or a concert of powers, to a two-pole governance, or to a Chinese primacy