Columbia International Affairs Online: Policy Briefs

CIAO DATE: 10/2014

The EU in the MENA region: confounded by the chaos?

Domhnall O’Sullivan

June 2014

The Geneva Centre for Security Policy

Abstract

European Union (EU) policy in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region was traditionally quite simple. Though rhetorically committed to propagating liberal-democratic values and fuzzy ideas of shared governance, policy in practice kowtowed to the stability and continuity offered by autocrats. Fears of Islamist terrorism and energy insecurity ensured that Brussels stuck with the least bad option. The momentous upheaval of the Arab uprisings has left it with no option but to shift track. Recognizing history in the making in early 2011, Europe scrambled to get on the right side. Admirable initiatives to support the democratic transitions were launched, while the extra cash that was found in the midst of economic crisis testified to the importance of the MENA region. But as the dust thrown up by the Arab spring continues to swirl three years on, the EU struggles to see clearly. Instability reigns in Syria and Libya and threatens to spill into fragile surrounding states. Egypt has witnessed violence, profound social cleavages, and a return of authoritarian trends. Even the Gulf monarchies are struggling to maintain unity faced with the shifting regional dynamics. State-specific disorder and social polarization have become the new normal. The EU - like most international actors - is confounded. Much policymaking has become a day-to-day exercise in diplomatic improvisation. Nevertheless, several overarching shifts in the European stance towards its southern regional neighbour can be observed. Some have come about as a direct result of the post-2011 turmoil; others were already quietly taking shape in preceding years.